US-Israel Strikes Iran: What Does the 2026 War Tell?

Despite US President Donald Trump’s touting talk with Iran to find a way to end the war, Tehran’s skepticism of Washington’s intentions reminds us of the totalitarian consequences of a war. The US-Israel strikes Iran analysis in this article unveils the naked truths behind an international war, and how such wars loom as an impending doom for the countries involved. 

Why Did the US and Israel Strike Iran?

After the US and Israel launched extensive strikes on Iran, killing the supreme leader of the country on February 28, the conflict continued to rise across the Middle East. Iran responded by launching attacks on Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf. The conflict quickly escalated, leading to enormous casualties and damage in all the involved regions. The US and Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, leadership in Tehran, and military sites at first. The collaborative attack on Iran killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The conflict between these countries rose after months of US military build-up in the region and multiple failed negotiations between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme. On this, President Trump commented, “A massive and ongoing military operation was launched now because Iran had rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions.” 

When it comes to Israel’s rage against Iran, we can trace it back to their conflicting history. Israel has always viewed the Islamic Republic as an existential threat. The country fought a 12-day war against Iran with US support. However, both the US and Israel claim that Iran still seeks to own nuclear weapons, despite the 2015 US-Iran nuclear deal. Just the night before the US-Israel attack, the latest rounds of US-Iranian nuclear talks revealed a breakthrough that “Iran will never ever have nuclear material that will create a bomb.” Followed by the talk, the US and Israel launched their first strikes to minimise retaliation on US assets in Iran.

Iranians went through years of economic turmoil, worsened by EU and US sanctions on Iran’s oil sector over Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions, human rights abuses, and financial connections to international terrorism.

In 2026, the country experienced a sharp collapse of its currency. Although restrictions make it impossible to know the exact number, inside Iranian reports suggested that over 30,000 people were killed by the country’s own security forces. Observing this, Trump repeatedly threatened to attack Iran if the authorities did not put an end to the bloodshed and resume nuclear talks. Despite being ruled as a theocracy, Iran is a culturally diverse country. Under the Islamic Republic, reformist movements have been strangulated again and again. On the other hand, Iranian leaders are under heavy state surveillance or in exile. This shows how the disrupted political and economic environment of the country and its hunger for nuclear weapons called for a war-like situation, hampering global peace and the supply chain of energy materials worldwide.

US-Iran War: What Impact Is It Having on Oil Prices?

We all know, Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of oil and gas, and the US-Israel’s attack and Iran’s retaliation have proven to be disastrous for their supplies. A disruption that may affect people globally for a long time. According to energy data firm Rystad, despite sanctions from the US, in 2025, Iran drained more fossil fuels than other countries. Along with Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar are some of the other largest producers of oil and gas. Collectively with Iran, these countries produce over 20% of the world’s fossil fuels.

In response to the US-Israel attack, Iran has threatened to prevent tankers from traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, the only shipping lane through which most of the world’s fuels pass. The ongoing conflict has already disrupted these energy supplies. Oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait have shut down due to the attacks by Iranian drones and the attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, fossil fuel prices have risen. When Iran started retaliating to the attacks, the prices of oil surged to 10% and gas by 15% in neighbouring facilities. It is important to assess how long and to what extent the conflict will continue to destabilize the global oil and gas trade. If it does not end soon, oil prices could rise to above $100 per barrel.

Iran’s Response to US-Israel Attack

Iran’s aggressive retaliation against US and Israeli strikes reflects Tehran’s war strategy: “eschewing calibrated retaliation for unbridled escalation.” Iran intends to restore deterrence and ensure the Islamic Republic’s position in the region’s emerging order. Iran aimed to extend and intensify the conflict from day one, and the unprecedented approach of the country could trigger several escalation scenarios with long-term global and regional impacts.

While evaluating Iran's retaliation strategy 2026, we have identified two key components: horizontal and vertical escalations. Iran forcefully adopted both escalations in the initial stages of the conflict and continues to escalate vertically as the conflict reaches the third week. Let us have a broader insight into the two escalations.

Horizontal Escalation: Expanding War Across the Region

Iran expanded the targeted geographical conflict arena within less than 24 hours of the war. By March 5, Iran entangled 14 nations. Apart from that, an Iranian ballistic missile triggered NATO air defenses in Turkey. This horizontal escalation highlights Tehran’s war strategy of triggering conflict across the region to instill widespread fear and render the Middle East a “no-go zone.”

Vertical Escalation: Expanding Targets

With its opening retaliation, Iran continued a vertical escalation by expanding targets beyond US and Israeli sites to strike Gulf civilian and transportation infrastructure, including shopping areas and hotels, apartment buildings, and air transport hubs. While provoking disruption in the global energy market, Iran deepened its campaign and effectively closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s vertical escalation can be seen as a response to US and Israeli attacks.

As the war has entered its third week, it could lead to various escalation scenarios, including straight-line escalation, exponential escalation, and asymmetric escalation. Moreover, if the countries do not put an end to the conflict, the war could wreak havoc on the global markets. 

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